The importance of expectation in your poker strategy

Mathematical expectation should be the most important defining factor towards the strategy that you adopt and the decisions that you make in any poker game, whether it’s a live one or an online one. This expectation (also known as Expected Value) is at the core of every decision a successful poker player makes, as it also defines the nature of this game quite accurately.

This is what most rookies get wrong: they fail to take expected value into account at all (as it’s the case most of the time) or they suspect that EV might have something to do with being successful, but they fail to weigh it in correctly, because they don’t exactly know what EV is and what factors influence it.

In order to understand the impact of EV on strategy, you need to know the following: assuming that you are (or trying to become) a professional, that is a person who makes a living off playing poker, you’ll be playing pretty much all the time (or let’s say 8 hours a day). In this case, every positive expected value play that you make will win you some money. Never mind that sometimes you get outdrawn by the fish and are subjected to some extremely humbling bad beats despite clinging to positive EV. As long as you only play such situations (as much as it’s humanly possible, of course) you shall always win a little in the long-run (I’ll explain why in an upcoming example). Whenever you play negative EV situations (the mathematical expectation on the bet is not on your side) you always lose, even if sometimes you outdraw someone and win. Remember, we’re talking about the long-run here, and that means you lose a little on every negative EV bet on average.

Let us now see an example: suppose you’re in a bet with someone, one that bears 9-1 odds for you. That means 9 times out of the 10 you win, while your opponent only wins once on average. (certainly, he can win 4-5 bets in a row, - again – we’re talking about averages here). Now then, by wagering $1 against his $1, you’ll have one hell of a positive EV. Namely, you’ll have a net win of $8 on every 10 such bets. That means you will win $0.80 on every single $1 bet that you make on average, rain or shine. Chances are though, that you won’t find an opponent as dumb as to agree to such a setup, so you’ll have to give some of your expectation up in order to make it all a little bit more attractive to him. If you tell him that you’re going to post $8 against his $1 on every one of the above named bets, he’ll certainly find it loads more exciting than before. You win 9 times, that makes for $9, you lose the last bet which costs you $8, so after 10 bets you’ll still be $1 ahead. That means you’ll be earning 10 cents on every bet, which is still not a bad deal, but it’s already starting to look bleak from the perspective of another factor we’ll discuss later.

Anyway, from the above example it’s easy to reach the conclusion that EV is influenced by the money each of the two opponents post in the pot, and by the actual odds they gat for their particular hands. These are the Direct factors that shape EV in a hands-on manner. Naturally, poker would probably not as popular as it is if it were this simple. There are other factors out there, that influence one or more of these direct quantities, which in turn end up turning the whole equation upside down. A recurring bonus like rakeback will significantly influence the hourly rate (which is the sum of mathematical expectations on every bet for an hour minus, the rake), and so will other – apparently unrelated – things like the reading of the opponents, one’s ability to manipulate them, table selection and other strategy related issues.

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Types of Poker Players

There are four main different types of poker players. The better you understand what they are the sooner you can understand what type of player your friends and opponents are which will help you make decisions about betting. The two main ways to sort payers is into aggressive or passive and then further into loose or tight. That means we can have aggressive-loose, aggressive-tight, passive-loose, and passive-tight. Many people understand what passive and aggressive are, but don’t know what loose and tight players are.

A loose player is a form of an aggressive player. They play aggressively and take a lot of risks to try and chase big rewards. They enjoy playing a lot of hands and are less likely to fold a hand when challenge with a raise or bet. As mentioned before there are two types of loose players, passive-loose and aggressive-loose.

Passive-loose players enjoy playing aggressively and consider pot odds as suggestions. They will call no matter what they feel the strength of their hand or the possible strength of their opponents hand. They are optimists who think that they could have a dynamite hand if a good flop, turn, or river came up, no matter what the odds of that are. The reason they are classified as passive players is that they always call and rarely raise. These passive-loose players tend to slowly but surely loose their stack, but rarely go out early in the game.

Aggressive-loose players are the daredevils and stuntmen of the poker world. They throw caution to the wind and play super aggressive. They seem to think that raising is a sport. Aggressive-loose players will raise pre-flop and after the flop and generally try to be chip bullies. These players tend to win a lot of blinds and small pots, but can be easily taken out if they run into a good hand.

Tight players are ones that are passive and don’t like playing a lot of hands.
They won’t take many chances and usually fold if the pot odds aren’t in their favor. They don’t enjoy raising much, generally just a call or fold. They pick their spots to mount an offence.

A passive-tight player is allergic to risk taking. They are not going to call even if they are looking at pocket rockets. They practically never bluff and fold easily. They play the pots odds and rarely go all-in, unless they are low in chips.

An aggressive-tight player lives by the military idea “choosing the hill you want to die on”. If the odds aren’t in their favor they will fold. They will see the flop with decent cards and then if they find they have the nuts or best likely hand their aggressive tendencies come out.

It is important to understand which of these your opponents are so you can try to trap them or take advantage of their weakness. When it comes to your personally strategy, it is best to try and chance like a chameleon so you aren’t easily readable.

The Tilt

The tilt is something that no poker player wants to get sucked into, but many amateurs do. A player goes on “the tilt” when they begin to let emotion control their game because of something that has happened in the game recently. Maybe he lost a big hand due to bad luck and wants that money back from that player that should be out right now and so he calls that players raises in an attempt to try an eliminate that person from the table.

So rather than stay within his normal game, the player begins to do things they would never usually do. They become overly aggressive, refuse to fold when they should, lose their self discipline and self control. They get sucked into way too many pots that they should’ve never been in in the first place.

Many people don’t understand how it happens or why a player goes on the tilt. The large majority of the time is when a player loses a hand he expected to win, in other words a “bad beat”.  This causes a major surge in emotion which the average person can’t control. Your emotions will always win out over thought and logic.

The player sees all his work of being patient and getting a large chip stack go down the drain and naturally he tries to win it all back as soon as possible. The brain wants you to win back everything you just lost as fast as possible which means that the player is going to play hands or bet with hands he would usually fold 90% of the time.

Many people wonder if the tilt can be avoided and in a word yes it can (sorry a few words). It takes a large amount of self control and discipline as well as a well planned emergency plan, but it is doable. There are some people who believe taking a few minutes of folding hands and “counting to ten” mentally will allow you to avoid it, but this just isn’t enough usually.

The best thing to do is to leave the table if you can for a few hands. If you are at a casino then get up, go to the washroom get something to drink. If you are at an online tournament click “Sit Out” and then go do something around the house until you are back to the right frame of mind. You should take a break for as long as you need. Make sure you leave right away, don’t be tempted to play the next hand because you think your luck might change. You should leave immediately.

At the end of the day, a good poker strategy will allow you to avoid going on the tilt and this good poker strategy will always win over your emotion as long as you are disciplined, proper calculation will win over your instinct and more important than anything experience will win over anything. Poker pros don’t go on the tilt because they are used to losing hands they should’ve won and they understand that it happens sometimes.

Poker Site Review : PartyPoker.com

It’s easy to find a poker game online, but picking the best place to open an account can be tough. There are literally thousands of poker sites to choose from. If you’re serious about online poker and gambling, picking the right site is crucial to your game.

#1 Poker Site for Table Play- PartyPoker.com

The sites that you choose to play at should reflect your wants and needs. But, if you’ve never checked out PartyPoker.com, it is worth looking into. PartyPoker.com is one of the most popular poker sites on the web and is the best site around for table games. No matter what game you’re looking for, chances are you can find it on this website.

Party Poker is the world’s largest poker room by far. This site covers a whopping 35% of the online poker market. The owners of the PartyPoker.com, PartyGaming, are quite familiar with the online gaming industry and also run PartyCasion.com and PartyBingo.com.

When you visit PartyPoker.com, you can’t help but be impressed. The technology on the site is excellent and all of the features are extremely easy to navigate. And because PartyPoker.com is the most popular poker site on the web, you’ll also find players at every level, providing you with whatever kind of competition you’re looking for.

Here are a few other things that make PartyPoker.com a great place to play:

  • Good Software. Though the interface is not overly impressive, the software is top notch. Because of the amount of traffic that the site gets, updates are frequently made to the software, making play smooth. The lobby is easy to navigate, making it easy to find the games and stakes that you are looking for.
  • Poker School and Interactive Tutorials. If there’s a certain game that you never quite learned to play or if there’s a game you just need to be refreshed on, this is a great place to start. Tutorials are interactive and give you hands-on training in anything you want to learn.
  • Game Variety. PartyPoker.com offers a great selection of games (Omaha, Holdem, 7-Card Stud) with several different variations of each. You’ll also find more ring game action here than on any other site. During peak hours, it is not unusual to see 12,000 to 13,000 ring game players.
  • Soft Competition. Lots of new players and new gamblers join PartyPoker.com every day. Experienced players will find it much easier to win here based on the level of competition alone.
  • Seat Availability. Because there are so many tables, you will always find a seat. No waiting required. The lobby is a great place to find exactly what you’re looking for.
  • Simultaneous Table Play. You can play up to four tables at one time, which can definitely allow you to win bigger chunks of money in one sitting. You can always find plenty of easy tables that will pay off.
  • Private Tables. Want to play with your friends? You can on this site by booking a private table. With private tables, you can get together with whoever you want, virtually guaranteeing a friendly game.
  • Tournaments. You’ll find Holdem, Omaha, and 7-Card Stud tournaments of all shapes and sizes on this site. Plus, the tournament traffic is unbelievable. PartyPoker.com hosts approximately 70% of the fixed limit Texas Holdem Tournaments that happen online and the site brings in serious tournament traffic. During peak hours, you can find anywhere from 40,000 to 60,000 players on the site. And with tournament prize pools up to $1,000,000, there’s plenty of money to win.
  • No Cheats. This site does their best to stop cheaters with a no tolerance policy and regular security trolls. Colluders don’t stand a chance at PartyPoker.com. Players are only allowed one account, and random security checks and log file reviews help maintain the system’s integrity and table fairness.
  • Security. With 128-bit encryption, the site guarantees that your data is kept private. Player identification and controlled access log-ins also help to keep your info safe.
  • Loyalty Bonuses. This is great for frequent visitors. PartyPoker.com has a frequent player points program. You’ll also find re-deposit promotions that let you get 15% to 25% up to a $100 maximum.
  • Reload Bonuses. If you let your account go dormant at PartyPoker.com, they’ll try to get you back in their game by sending you a bonus offer via email.
  • $5,000 Freeroll. PartyPoker.com has a monthly backdoor freeroll for all new users.
  • Promotions. You will see more promotions on PartyPoker.com than you will on almost any other site. Many of these promotions are ongoing. For example- $50 per referral.
  • Easy Money. Loads of deposit options to choose from and fast payouts make for easy money on this site. Payout time is usually 24-48 hours.
  • Support. The customer support has improved dramatically and is now better than ever. Regular players are now assigned a dedicated host to ensure comps, bonuses, and a high level of support. You can also take advantage of 24/7 telephone support or email support. (Note: You’ll get a faster response if you call and speak to someone in person instead of sending an email.)

Poker Site Review : PokerStars.com

It’s easy to find a poker site or a poker tournament online–they’re everywhere. But finding a good place to play can be tough. There are literally thousands of poker sites to choose from, most of them offering everything from table games to online poker tournaments. If you’re serious about online poker and gambling, picking the right site and the right tournament is crucial to your game.

#1 Site for Tournament Play- PokerStars.com

PokerStars.com is the second best poker site on the net overall (PartyPoker.com gets the top honor) and the absolute best tournament site online. If you haven’t checked them out yet, it’s worth giving the site a try.

PokerStars.com is the market leader in online poker tournaments. Home to the last three World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event winners (Chris Moneymaker- 2003, Greg Raymer- 2004, and Joseph Hachem- 2005), PokerStars.com brings in thousands of new players on a daily basis and offers a nice range of competition.

At PokerStars.com, you’ll find that the software is top-notch and always runs fast and smooth. Plus, players get a great overview of their standing in tournaments as they’re playing. Statistics functions also set this site’s software apart from others. Players no longer have to track their own game data; PokerStars.com does it for them.

Here are a few other things that make PokerStars.com a great place to play:

  • Tournament Software. PokerStars.com is well known for their online tournament play and the tournament software that they employ sufficiently handles all of the traffic that comes through. You won’t ever have any platform problems and you’ll enjoy the special tournament features, such as an even balance of tables throughout tournament play.
  • PokerStars Blog. Poker star Brad “Otis” Willis serves as the chief blogger and offers top-quality playing advice and poker news to site visitors.
  • Game Variety. PokersStars.com features the best game variety on the web, offering good action and good volume. Major games include different versions of Omaha, 7-Card Stud, and Holdem. You can also find micro-limit games starting as low as $0.01/$0.02.
  • Soft Competition. You’ll have no problems finding players at all different skill levels here. A good player can do very well exploiting tight games. You’ll also encounter a nice selection of inexperienced players who barely know the difference between a full house and a flush.
  • Rakes. Great rakes. You’ll find that the rakes are especially good at micro-limit tables and high stakes games.
  • Statistic Trackers. The trackers here are better than average. Not only can you get notes on other players, you can also see your own playing statistics and get good lobby info that includes flop percentages and more.
  • Fun Pictures. PokerStars.com lets you see your competitor’s poker face, by allowing players to upload actual pictures of themselves– much more personal than blinking lights and text boxes. Not a major feature, but it does add a measure of fun and a level of hilarity to the game that you can’t find on every site.
  • Tournament Variety. You’ll find quite a few different special event tournaments here. There is also no shortage of satellite tournaments. PokerStars.com offers satellites for most major “land” tournaments, such as the World Series of Poker, the Professional World Poker Tour, and the World Poker Tour. By far, this site offers the best tournament play currently available on the Internet, providing everything from sit-and-go tournaments to fixed schedule play.
  • Tournament Traffic. PokerStars.com plays host to the world’s largest online poker tournaments and consistently has more tournament traffic than any other online poker site.
  • Prize Pools. The tournament prizes vary on PokerStars.com. You can win anything from straight cash to “Tournament Dollars” to entry into another poker tournament. With special events constantly being scheduled and daily tournaments, there is plenty of money to be made on the site.
  • Loyalty Bonuses. If you’re a regular player, you can take advantage of the many loyal player bonuses and programs that are offered by PokerStars.com, such as Frequent Player Points (FPPs).
  • VIP Club. If you’re a real frequent player on the site, you can join the VIP Club, which offers a variety of player benefits, such as tournament entries and extra FPPs.
  • Re-deposit Bonuses. There are plenty of promotions here, including re-deposit bonuses where you can get a 20-25% match on deposits up to $600.
  • Easy Deposits/Quick Payout. There are many different deposit and payout options available. Payout time is usually 8 hours with NETeller.
  • Security. You can definitely feel secure when playing at PokerStars.com. The security system is extremely advanced and exceeds the systems used by most sites. PokerStars.com also has a no tolerance policy when it comes to cheaters. In addition to having software that detects unusual patters, the site also has manual investigators that can help to protect you from colluders and any other player who has less than honest intentions.
  • Support. There is no live telephone support, but the email support here is excellent. Available 24/7, the support crew can offer advice and resolve any customer service issue that you may have.